Oil Patch Roulette? [courtesy Google Images]
On January 13th, Reuters reported in “Iran’s President Rouhani says countries behind oil price drop will suffer”, that:

“Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said that countries behind the fall in global oil prices would regret their decision and warned that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait would suffer alongside Iran from the price drop.  ‘Those that have planned to decrease the prices against other countries will regret this decision,’ Rouhani said in a speech broadcast on state television as oil plunged to near six year lows on international markets. ‘If Iran suffers from the drop in oil prices, know that other oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait will suffer more than Iran.’

Will the falling price of crude oil causes Iran to instigate some form of reprisal, vengeance or even violence against the Saudis or Kuwait?  Assassinations?  Bombings?  Covert support for political dissidents within Saudi Arabia and/or Kuwait?

Will the current fall in oil prices be stopped by the economic forces of supply and demand or by military forces of bang-bang and ka-boom!?

Some nations produce virtually nothing but crude oil.  Their national revenues might already be down as much as 60% due to the falling price of crude.  That fall in revenues isn’t merely painful for the people of those countries—it also exposes their governments to internal strife, chaos and possible overthrow.

The oil-producing nations that have been damaged by the fall in the price of crude oil must be furious at nations like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait that are deemed responsible for the price fall.

Can we expect one or more oil-producing countries to take some form of physical or economic vengeance against the Saudi’s and Kuwaitis?  Will some members of OPEC launch some sort of attack?

What about Russia?  Russia is being damaged by the falling oil prices.    Could Russia arrange to assassinate or more Saudi or Kuwaiti leaders?  How many Saudi and/or Kuwaiti leaders would have to die before those countries limited their production of crude oil and caused the global price of crude to rise?  I’ll bet the answer is “not many”.

How ‘bout corporations that work the “oil patch” and whose financial survival is threatened by the falling oil prices?  Is there a CEO who’s desperate enough to whack a couple of Saudi or Kuwaiti leaders in order to boost corporate profits?

Written by ALFRED ADASK – continue at ADASK’S LAW


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