It is difficult to find the motivation to write about the state of the global economy these days, if only because there is not much left to say. I feel like I am composing multiple obituaries for the same long dead corpse. Most of the Liberty Movement and I suspect a small portion of the mainstream market understand that there is no tangible or legitimate recovery, let alone a stable fiscal ladder to rest our feet upon. There is literally nothing left to the financial system but rigged statistics, false promises, and ever expanding debt. In fact, the concept of debt creation is the only thing holding our facade of an economy together.
You and I probably find this rather strange. We come from a long forgotten school of economics, in which demand, supply, and savings actually mean something in terms of our fiscal health. I have come across many mainstream economic acolytes and cultists in recent months who disregard ALL logic and reason, forsaking the realities of demand based trade and immersing themselves in a grand delusion in which central bank generated debt and inflation are the real source of “prosperity”. I feel sorry for them in a way, because the truth is right in front of their faces, and yet, they will never see it, not until they are buried alive in it.
Nothing makes this problem more apparent than the behavior of equities in the past month.
Stocks are, of course, a sham of the highest magnitude, but they do still say something about the greater truth behind our financial condition. The fact that many market traders clearly KNOW that it’s all a farce, and are actually banking and betting on the scam, tells me exactly how close we are to the end of the line. The recent near 10% drop in the Dow at the beginning of Fall must have certainly been a shock for the day trading community as well as mainstream pundits. The assumption for the past few years has been that central bank stimulus guarantees a constantly growing bull market, and to experience a considerable decline in equities even while QE was still in action was at least a noticeable wake up call.
I suspect that this decline in markets was not necessarily planned by the central banks, and was a stumble in their scheme to keep stocks elevated until after the QE taper had settled. It was also a stumble I expected a little earlier, around the end of Summer to be exact. Since the drop, central banks and the mainstream media have reacted forcefully to manipulate public perception as well as investor optimism, but this cannot go on for much longer.
In almost every instance of market decline, financial news group Reuters has injected false rumors of more stimulus from the European Central Bank. This was also the case in October as markets began to crash. These rumors were later dashed by the Financial Times, but not before the mere mention of more fiat stimulus from any central bank sent stocks soaring yet again.
This also occurred when middle management Federal Reserve member John Williams hinted in interviews of the possibility of “QE4” if the economy began to show signs of regression. Williams, of course, has no say in the decision to reintroduce QE, but this did not matter to investors, who immediately latched onto the meaningless news like anxious children, and threw their money back into stocks again.
And, most recently, Japan’s central bank announced a sudden and surprising re-ignition of stimulus measures to the tune of 80 Trillion Yen a year. This announcement, once again, sent global stocks skyrocketing, even though it was a stark admission by Japan’s financial elite that all their inflationary printing efforts for the past several years have failed miserably. As I have warned in the past, when bad news becomes good news because bad news promises more central bank intervention, the economy is truly on the verge of a reckoning.
Hopefully, we can all see the trend taking place here. With the end of the Federal Reserve taper now complete, and questions circling as to when interest rates will be raised, a market volatility not seen since 2008-2009 is returning. The ONLY measure that has slowed the crash is the use of false news stories hinting at further stimulus, as well as futile efforts by other central banks to pick up where the Federal Reserve left off. This shows that the investment world is so thoroughly addicted to QE that even the mere hint of another small fix of their favorite drug is enough to get them out of bed and excited. They know that the entire system is rigged by central banks, and they don’t care. In fact, they revel in it. The only goal of your average day trader now is to profit on the scam for as long as humanly possible, even though the ultimate conclusion of the scam will mean the utter destruction of their profits and the end of their way of life.
I hate to use a cinema analogy for a very real threat, but investors today remind me of Joe Pantoliano’s character in ‘The Matrix’; the guy who is fully aware that the Matrix is an illusion, but wants to experience the pleasure of the illusion all the same. So much so that he doesn’t mind being exploited like a slave by the system, and is willing to sacrifice all measure of truth and even the future just to get a taste of the fantasy again.
But what is the reality that the central banks are trying to hide, and why? This I have written about in detail on literally hundreds of occasions, so I will only cover the very latest news briefly here, and why I think the overall dynamic is about to change for the worse.
Global exports, and thus consumer demand, are plunging. Germany, the only pillar left to prop up the failing European Union, has experienced a severe decline in exports not seen since 2009.
China, the largest exporter and importer in the world, and Chinese companies, have been caught in a number of instances using fraudulent invoices to artificially inflate their own export numbers, in some cases reporting 50% more exported goods than had actually existed.
China’s manufacturing has also declined for the past five months, exposing the nature of its inflated export stats and indicating a global slowdown.
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of global shipping rates for raw goods, and thus a measure of demand for shipping, continues to drag along near historic lows.
The U.S. consumer (the only economic asset the U.S. has besides the dollar’s world reserve status), has seen declines in spending as well as wages.
In the meantime, long term jobless Americans continue to fall off welfare rolls by the millions, making unemployment numbers look good, but the overall future picture look terrible as participation rates dissolve into the ether of government statistics.
Written by: BRANDON SMITH of ALT-MARKET – shared on SHTF PLAN